Ten hours a week for a year on a niche subscription product, with $240 of hosting. The win rate is the share of Stripe-verified indie projects that clear $1,000/month, discounted by the 54% that never earn anything. Almost all of the cost is your own time.

Win rate 13% · payoff 3.5× · 12 months

Two years of in-state public tuition plus two years of forgone bachelor's-level earnings, which dominate everything else. The win rate is FREOPP's share of master's programmes with a positive net lifetime return — the other 43% lose money.

Win rate 57% · payoff 0.8× · 24 months

Trade a liquid public-company grant for illiquid startup equity. What is at risk is the grant you walk away from, not cash. The win rate is the complement of the 65% of venture financings that return less than 1x.

Win rate 35% · payoff 2.9× · 18 months

A 10% first-time-buyer down payment plus closing costs on the median existing home, held ten years. The win rate is the share of ten-year windows with positive *real* appreciation; the nominal figure would read above 90%. Mortgage interest, ownership costs and forgone rent are all excluded.

Win rate 64% · payoff 1.2× · 120 months

A two-year STEM master's at out-of-state international rates, plus living costs. The win rate is programme completion multiplied by the 34.9% H-1B selection rate, so it turns on a lottery you do not control — and from FY2027 that lottery is wage-weighted against entry-level salaries.

Win rate 23% · payoff 2.2× · 24 months

The midpoint of a filed FDD Item 7 range, plus two years of full-time owner-operation that the disclosure document never mentions. The win rate is two-year sector survival times the share of small food-service firms actually operating at a profit — surviving and succeeding are not the same thing.

Win rate 25% · payoff 1.7× · 24 months

Two years of consistent publishing at ten hours a week. Both the 2.6% chance of clearing $1,000/month and the size of that win come from the same fitted distribution of Patreon earnings, whose median is $25 a month.

Win rate 3% · payoff 1.6× · 24 months

Exam fees, membership and 135 hours. The cheapest commitment in the catalogue against a credible salary premium, which is why it ranks first. The win rate is the weakest number here: PMI has published no pass rate since 2005, so 60% is a vendor estimate with no primary basis.

Win rate 60% · payoff 5.7× · 12 months

Equipment, build-out and working capital, plus two years of owner-operation. No government or industry body publishes a startup cost for this, and the Specialty Coffee Association has written that the circulating figures were made up — the number here is a vendor-blog midpoint and should be treated as the softest input in the catalogue.

Win rate 25% · payoff 1.2× · 24 months

$1,000 a month into a broad-market index fund. The win rate is the share of five-year windows with positive real total return since 1928, and the loss is the 10th-percentile window, which costs about 8% of the balance rather than all of it. The benchmark every other option should be measured against.

Win rate 77% · payoff 2.8× · 60 months