Sample rankings
Ranked by score = p × b, ties broken by RAROC and then by expected value. · You have not evaluated anything yet, so this is the ten built-in templates ranked against each other. Create your own opportunity and it will appear here instead.
Win rate against payoff ratio
Bubble size is the equivalent capital committed; colour is the recommendation. Top right is the quadrant worth wanting: likely to work and worth a lot when it does.
Full ranking
| # | Opportunity | Win rate | Payoff | Score | Kelly | EV | RAROC | Action | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Professional certification (PMP) 12 mo | 60.0% | 5.65× | 3.39 | 52.9% | $17,113 | 8.55 | GO_REDUCED · Proceed at reduced size | Open |
| 2 | Index-fund dollar-cost averaging over 5 years 60 mo | 76.6% | 2.83× | 2.17 | 68.3% | $117,496 | 4.30 | GO_REDUCED · Proceed at reduced size | Open |
| 3 | Big Tech to late-stage startup 18 mo | 35.0% | 2.93× | 1.03 | 12.8% | $38,514 | 0.44 | GO · Proceed | Open |
| 4 | Buying a first home 120 mo | 64.3% | 1.24× | 0.80 | 35.6% | $23,925 | 1.27 | GO_REDUCED · Proceed at reduced size | Open |
| 5 | Overseas STEM degree 24 mo | 23.0% | 2.16× | 0.50 | 0.0% | -$19,616 | -0.34 | NO_GO · Do not proceed | Open |
| 6 | Bootstrapped micro-SaaS 12 mo | 13.3% | 3.47× | 0.46 | 0.0% | -$7,791 | -0.27 | NO_GO · Do not proceed | Open |
| 7 | Master's degree 24 mo | 57.0% | 0.80× | 0.46 | 3.5% | $5,351 | 0.05 | WATCH · Watch | Open |
| 8 | Food & beverage franchise 24 mo | 25.2% | 1.68× | 0.42 | 0.0% | -$175,480 | -0.25 | NO_GO · Do not proceed | Open |
| 9 | Independent coffee shop 24 mo | 25.2% | 1.18× | 0.30 | 0.0% | -$163,045 | -0.32 | NO_GO · Do not proceed | Open |
| 10 | Building a creator brand 24 mo | 2.6% | 1.61× | 0.04 | 0.0% | -$37,353 | -0.51 | NO_GO · Do not proceed | Open |
These are the built-in templates, shown so the page is useful before you have data of your own.Evaluate your own decision